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PMP lesson · Delivery Approach · Choosing how to deliver · lesson 4 of 4 · about 6 minutes

Rolling wave planning and progressive elaboration

Predictive and hybrid (agile: the planning onion)Free preview
Goal: After this lesson you can plan near-term work in detail and later work at a high level, and explain progressive elaboration and the agile planning levels.

1The situation

Plan the part you can see

The robot cell plant expansion runs for two years. The civil works and steel for the next three months are fully designed. But the layout of the final production area depends on product decisions the customer will make next year.

Planning that area in detail now would be guesswork, and the guesses would need to be redone. Not planning it at all would leave a hole in the budget and schedule.

The answer: plan in detail what you can see, keep the rest at a high level, and refine as you go.

2Progressive elaboration

Plans become more detailed and accurate as more information becomes available. This is normal and expected, in every approach.

Near-term
Detailed
Activities, durations, resources, owners.
Mid-term
Work packages
Rough estimates; refined later.
Far-term
Planning packages
High-level placeholders in the WBS.
Exam shortcut: near-term work is clear, later work depends on future decisions → rolling wave planning.

3The agile planning onion

Vision / strategyRoadmap (quarters)Release plan (months)Sprint(weeks, days) Outer rings: broad and long-term · inner rings: detailed and near-term
Broad and long-term outside; detailed and near-term inside.

4How it looks on the exam

Exam-style question 1. In a plant expansion, the civil works for the next 12 months are well understood, while the final production area layout depends on decisions to be made next year. How should the project manager plan?
A. Plan everything in full detail now
B. Delay all planning until the decisions are made
C. Use rolling wave planning: detailed near-term planning, high-level later work, elaborated as decisions are made
D. Exclude the production area from the plan
Show the answer and the decode
Answer: C.
In simple English
Clear near-term work, uncertain later work.
What is the question really asking?
How to plan.
Key words / trigger
“depends on decisions to be made next year”
PMP logic
Rolling wave: detail what you can see, keep the rest high-level, refine later.
Why the wrong answer looks attractive
Full detail now looks thorough, but it is guesswork.

5Remember this

Your memory card

  • Progressive elaboration: plans gain detail as information arrives
  • Rolling wave: near-term detailed, later work as planning packages
  • Agile planning onion: vision → roadmap → release → sprint → day
  • Detail ≠ scope creep; new scope still needs change control
The full lesson in the PMCLEAR app also has:
  • the rest of the lesson (Agile version: the planning onion)
  • a worked example
  • the common traps (wrong vs right)
  • 2 exam-style questions with the decode
  • a 3-question quick check
Open the full lesson → Create a free account
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