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PMP lesson · Agile Practices · Estimating and forecasting · lesson 1 of 3 · about 6 minutes

Story points and relative estimation

Agile and hybridFree preview
Goal: After this lesson you can explain story points, run planning poker, and avoid anchoring and individual hour estimates.

1The situation

Everyone copies the tech lead

In the MES team's estimation sessions, the technical lead always says his number first, and everyone else gives a similar one. Several stories have taken much longer than estimated, and some members admit they had expected more complexity.

In another team, each developer estimates his own tasks in hours, and feels judged when estimates are wrong.

Agile teams estimate differently: together, and relatively.

2Story points

Story points measure the relative size of work: effort, complexity and uncertainty together, compared with other stories the team knows. A 5-point story is roughly “a bit more than twice” a 2-point story.

Relative
Compare
“Bigger or smaller than the export story?”
Team
Together
Everyone estimates; differences reveal hidden knowledge.
Team-specific
Not comparable
Points mean something only inside one team.
Story points are for planning, not for judging people. Never compare points or velocity between teams.

3What the numbers mean

1–2

Tiny, well understood. Change an alarm text.

3–5

Normal, some unknowns. Add a CSV export.

8–13

Large, more risk. New recipe editor.

20+

Too big: split before the sprint.

The Fibonacci-like scale (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20…) makes big items deliberately “fuzzy”: precision is false at that size.

Relative sizes; large items are split.

4How it looks on the exam

Exam-style question 1. In estimation sessions, the technical lead always gives his estimate first and others follow with similar numbers. Several stories took much longer than estimated. What should the project manager suggest?
A. Let the tech lead estimate alone
B. Use simultaneous reveal, such as planning poker, and discuss differences
C. Add 25% to all estimates
D. Average anonymous written estimates
Show the answer and the decode
Answer: B.
In simple English
Anchoring on the first number.
What is the question really asking?
The right technique.
Key words / trigger
“always gives his estimate first”
PMP logic
Simultaneous reveal prevents anchoring; discussion surfaces hidden knowledge.
Why the wrong answer looks attractive
Anonymous averages avoid anchoring but lose the discussion.

5Remember this

Your memory card

  • Story points = relative size (effort + complexity + uncertainty)
  • Estimate as a team; planning poker prevents anchoring
  • Differences reveal hidden knowledge: discuss them
  • Points are for planning, not judging; never compare teams
The full lesson in the PMCLEAR app also has:
  • the rest of the lesson (Planning poker)
  • a worked example
  • the common traps (wrong vs right)
  • 2 exam-style questions with the decode
  • a 3-question quick check
Open the full lesson → Create a free account
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