Home › Free PMP lessons › Agile Practices

PMP lesson · Agile Practices · Estimating and forecasting · lesson 2 of 3 · about 6 minutes

Velocity and capacity

Agile and hybridFree preview
Goal: After this lesson you can calculate and use velocity correctly, adjust for capacity, and explain why velocity must never become a target.

1The situation

“Restore performance: 45 points!”

After two members left and two new ones joined, the MES team's velocity fell from 40 to 31 points. A senior executive proposes publishing a target of 45 points per sprint, with bonuses for reaching it.

It sounds like strong management. In practice, the team would simply start estimating stories bigger, and the number would rise while real output stayed the same.

Velocity is a thermometer, not a thermostat.

2What velocity is

Velocity = the story points of work that met the definition of done in a sprint. Use the average of recent sprints for forecasting.

Velocity
Done points per sprint
Only fully done stories count.
Capacity
Who is available
Adjust for holidays, training, support duty.
Trend
Watch the direction
A falling trend is a signal to investigate (team change, technical debt).
Velocity is a planning tool, not a performance target. Measure value and outcomes instead.

3A velocity chart

34S138S236S340S437S531S628S7avg ≈ 37S6–S7: new members + technical debt
Stable around 37, then a drop after team changes and growing technical debt.

4How it looks on the exam

Exam-style question 1. After team changes, velocity dropped from 42 to 31. An executive proposes a published velocity target of 45 with bonuses. What should the project manager advise?
A. Support the target
B. Suggest a lower target of 38
C. Compare velocity with other teams
D. Explain that velocity is a team-specific planning measure distorted by targets, and focus on removing impediments and measuring delivered value
Show the answer and the decode
Answer: D.
In simple English
Management wants a velocity target.
What is the question really asking?
The right advice.
Key words / trigger
“published velocity target … bonuses”
PMP logic
Velocity supports forecasting; targets lead to gaming.
Why the wrong answer looks attractive
A 'more realistic' target is still a target.

5Remember this

Your memory card

  • Velocity = done points per sprint; use recent averages
  • Adjust plans for capacity
  • Never a target, a bonus basis or a team comparison
  • Falling velocity → find the cause (team change, debt, impediments)
The full lesson in the PMCLEAR app also has:
  • the rest of the lesson (Why velocity changes)
  • a worked example
  • the common traps (wrong vs right)
  • 2 exam-style questions with the decode
  • a 3-question quick check
Open the full lesson → Create a free account
← Story points and relative estimationNext: Release planning: fixed date, variable scope →