PMP lesson · Agile Practices · Estimating and forecasting · lesson 3 of 3 · about 7 minutes
Release planning: fixed date, variable scope
Agile and hybridFree preview
Goal: After this lesson you can forecast a release as a range from velocity, plan a fixed-date release by priority (MoSCoW), and use a burn-up chart to show scope growth.
1The situation
The exhibition won't wait
The MES product must be shown at an industry exhibition in ten weeks: five sprints. The release backlog is 210 points; the team's velocity ranges from 28 to 36. Stakeholders insist: “Everything must be in.”
Even at the best velocity, 5 × 36 = 180 points. The date cannot move. Something has to give, and in agile it is scope, chosen by value.
2Forecast as a range
Use the observed velocity range, not a single number:
Range
Sprints needed = backlog ÷ velocity
240 points at 30–40 per sprint = 6 to 8 sprints.
Fixed date
Points by a date = sprints × velocity
5 sprints at 28–36 = 140 to 180 points.
Fixed date → variable scope. Prioritise with the product owner so the most valuable features are surely in.
3MoSCoW prioritisation
Must have
Without it the release fails. Shift report export.
Should have
Important, but there's a workaround. Date range filter.
Could have
Nice to have. PDF with logo.
Won't have (this time)
Agreed out of this release. Mobile app.
Agree the Musts first; they must fit inside the pessimistic forecast.
4How it looks on the exam
Exam-style question 1. A release must be ready for an exhibition in ten weeks (five sprints). Velocity has ranged from 28 to 36 points, and the release backlog is 210 points. Stakeholders want every feature. What should the project manager do?
A. Commit to all 210 points with extra effort
B. Forecast about 140 to 180 points and work with the PO and stakeholders to prioritise, e.g. with MoSCoW
C. Move the exhibition date
D. Ask the team to increase their estimates
Show the answer and the decode
Answer: B.
In simple English
Fixed date, too much scope.
What is the question really asking?
How to plan honestly.
Key words / trigger
“ranged from 28 to 36 … 210 points”
PMP logic
Fixed date → variable scope; forecast a range and prioritise by value.
Why the wrong answer looks attractive
'Yes with extra effort' fails even at the best velocity.
5Remember this
Your memory card
Forecast as a range: backlog ÷ velocity range
Fixed date → variable scope, ordered by value
MoSCoW: Musts inside the pessimistic forecast
Burn-up shows scope growth separately from delivery
The full lesson in the PMCLEAR app also has:
the rest of the lesson (Prioritising: MoSCoW, Burn-up charts show scope changes)