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PMP lesson · Agile Practices · Value and risk in agile · lesson 1 of 2 · about 6 minutes

Spikes and the risk-adjusted backlog

Agile and hybridFree preview
Goal: After this lesson you can use spikes to reduce uncertainty and order the backlog by both value and risk.

1The situation

The risky feature at the end

The MES backlog contains an AI-based defect classifier that has never been tested on the customer's images. If it fails, a large part of the product would need redesign. Because its business value is only moderate, the product owner placed it near the end of the release.

If it fails then, it fails when changes are most expensive. Agile teams bring uncertainty forward, not only value.

2Order by value AND risk

A risk-adjusted backlog considers both value and uncertainty. High-risk items, or small experiments that reduce their risk, come early.

Spike
Timeboxed research
Answer one question quickly: can it be done, which option works, how big is it?
Early
Fail cheap
Learning early costs less than learning late.
Owner
Product owner
Decides the order with the team's input on risk.
Exam shortcut: uncertain technology, can't estimate, may need redesign → spike or prototype early.

3Value × risk ordering

1 · Do first2 · Reduce risk early3 · Do next4 · Avoid / later high value, high riskspike, prototypehigh value, low risklow value, low risk Value →Risk / uncertainty →
High-value, high-risk items come first; risky but valuable unknowns get a spike early.

4How it looks on the exam

Exam-style question 1. A backlog feature depends on a novel algorithm never tested on the customer's data. If it fails, much of the product needs redesign. The product owner placed it near the end because its value is moderate. What should the project manager suggest?
A. Leave it at the end
B. Remove the feature
C. Suggest considering risk as well as value, moving a spike or early prototype of the algorithm forward
D. Add a large buffer to its estimate
Show the answer and the decode
Answer: C.
In simple English
High uncertainty planned late.
What is the question really asking?
What to suggest.
Key words / trigger
“never tested … much of the product needs redesign”
PMP logic
Risk-adjusted backlog: reduce uncertainty early with a spike.
Why the wrong answer looks attractive
Value-only ordering seems correct, but agile also brings risk forward.

5Remember this

Your memory card

  • Risk-adjusted backlog: order by value and risk
  • Spike = timeboxed investigation with a clear question
  • Learn early, when change is cheap
  • Output of a spike = knowledge, better estimates, better backlog
The full lesson in the PMCLEAR app also has:
  • the rest of the lesson (Spikes in practice)
  • a worked example
  • the common traps (wrong vs right)
  • 2 exam-style questions with the decode
  • a 3-question quick check
Open the full lesson → Create a free account
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